Comments in this blog refer to my charts collection found at
For intra-week comments go there, updated more frequently.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Summer Roll- Seasonal Forecast.

We had some ugly market action for the past several weeks, and it feels like there has been some severe correction or even a bear market around. However, in reality we had just an intermediate correction so far, with the decline in SPX just under 9% from the top to the through so far.
I have 3 charts showing where we may go this Summer.
In general it appears that we just made a bottom of the wave 4 of the wave C. Wave 5 of the C is just starting and may take us to the 1450 range in September. That's my preferred count.
Another count much more bearish, places us in the middle of the wave 1 of the new bear market.
While possible, I do not think this is the case just looking at the sentiment. Simply, to many bears around for wave 1 of the bear.
There is a third scenario, that is somewhat more likely, but still would not outrank the number one.
Anyway, will see. Hindsight is always 100% right.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Weekend wrap- reading the mess.

It will be a very short update this weekend, with only one chart shown. Trying to make sense and a pattern of what's has been going in the market for the past month just led me to one conclusion- I have seen it before.
There is actually a rational explanation to this pattern- distribution going on, once that done a short-lived rally will likely happen followed by more substantial decline. This actually fits my prior assumptions about top in July then botttom in August and the final drive to the bull market top in October.