Comments in this blog refer to my charts collection found at http://stockcharts.com
For intra-week comments go there, updated more frequently.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Weekend wrap- giddy feeling- turning the clock back

What a week!
It truly deserves the exclamation sign and more.
There are unrelenting waterfall declines across the board, carnage everywhere, with markets giving up practically all the gains for the year.
And yet,  yesterday, the Bloombergs and CNBC on my XM radio just having that also unrelenting, but giddy talk about the FB IPO. The closest feeling to that I had during March of 2000. Well, maybe I am oversensitive but that felt very, very strange.
Lets go back to the charts.
The very first one to illustrate the point that  the gain for the year has been given up.
Interestingly, the 200 days MA is at the level of the market at the beginning of the year, thanks to it being flat of course. I believe that puts additional pressure on institutional investors to defend it, but also makes the potential breakdown even more damaging (being under water is not a pleasant feeling and may evoke seizures-like activity,  as some clients of certain agencies of our government could attest).
SPX itself stopped exactly on support that I have drawn a while back.

R2K wasn't so lucky and closed under its 200 days MA. On that note, if you look further abroad, FTSE seems to be leading the pack (for "developed economies") and is very un-comfortably sitting under the water already, and actually already crashing if you ask me.
Ditto for Brazil, that has been falling like a BRICK since the beginning of March.
There is obviously a multitude of charts around that I could add to illustrate the same point- please feel free to browse my chartlist. There is practically no bullish charts around, well, with a little exception of bonds, VIX and the US buck.
The dollar long-term chart would be the most depressing though to the crowds of the gold bugs that I was swearing my allegiance for quite while, if get it correctly.


In brief, it looks to me that the dollar is in a very early bull run, that may last till 2016-7. That would fit nicely with the next major through for the gold that's due in December 2016.
Now, once you know all about the future, have a very nice weekend folks.

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