Comments in this blog refer to my charts collection found at
For intra-week comments go there, updated more frequently.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Surging Euro update

Just a brief update on Euro. We do have potential divergence on the hourly chart and no collapse after breaking 125. Just an alert for a potential bounce.
It should be clear early tomorrow if the bounce or further collapse is in the cards.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Surging Euro, flying pigs.

Do you believe in flying pigs? I don't.
No, I am not a hard-headed atheist. If I see it, I will believe (I will not have to touch it).
What left me quite perplexed today is my reading of the . There are three fresh articles, written by thoughtful and certainly bright gentlemen, plainly calling a rally in the Euro, and one even predicting  a glorious event of "soaring" of this much beleaguered currency. That site is a place where independent thinkers and folks with contrarian traits tend to congregate and publish, and that's what makes me go there for others' opinions and thoughts, so I certainly do not take their opinions lightly.
Clearly, I need to take another look at my charts, and bear with me when I am doing it.
The very first is the weekly Euro chart, clearly showing breakdown of the support at 126.

Admittedly, there is some potential support at 125, which was a secondary low in March of 2009, that is likely in play now since Euro has had a minor consolidation above that number today, but support from 3 years ago is purely psychological. No trader has kept any position for that long. However, when I go to my long-term Euro chart, I can see 125 support that I have drawn really long time ago, based on several points of it being a resistance or support going back to 2004.

So, maybe be there is some importance of this number (yeah, just since it is a round/quarter-like number).
Drilling down a little further, there is the chart with a head and shoulders pattern that broke down and reached it's target.
So maybe that's it. Target reached, time for a bounce. I still do not see the "soaring" though.
Well, let's take another look at the same chart.

This time I marked a large H&S pattern with red letters. Granted, the head is very ugly (ragged, indented top like would be in a victim of the attack with a sledge hammer), but the rest is a classical pattern with a breakdown and retest and target of 113 if the red neckline is counted, or in a multi-head version if we count the blue neckline at 126, the target would be 103. I also see a clean wave starting from 133 at the beginning of May, that had only one weakly blip mid-month bouncing from 127 to 128, that appears to be targeting support at 119-120 and certainly does not appear to be completed yet.
Thank you for bearing with me, if anyone did.
Have a nice long weekend and let's see if pigs can fly

Friday, May 18, 2012

Weekend wrap- giddy feeling- turning the clock back

What a week!
It truly deserves the exclamation sign and more.
There are unrelenting waterfall declines across the board, carnage everywhere, with markets giving up practically all the gains for the year.
And yet,  yesterday, the Bloombergs and CNBC on my XM radio just having that also unrelenting, but giddy talk about the FB IPO. The closest feeling to that I had during March of 2000. Well, maybe I am oversensitive but that felt very, very strange.
Lets go back to the charts.
The very first one to illustrate the point that  the gain for the year has been given up.
Interestingly, the 200 days MA is at the level of the market at the beginning of the year, thanks to it being flat of course. I believe that puts additional pressure on institutional investors to defend it, but also makes the potential breakdown even more damaging (being under water is not a pleasant feeling and may evoke seizures-like activity,  as some clients of certain agencies of our government could attest).
SPX itself stopped exactly on support that I have drawn a while back.

R2K wasn't so lucky and closed under its 200 days MA. On that note, if you look further abroad, FTSE seems to be leading the pack (for "developed economies") and is very un-comfortably sitting under the water already, and actually already crashing if you ask me.
Ditto for Brazil, that has been falling like a BRICK since the beginning of March.
There is obviously a multitude of charts around that I could add to illustrate the same point- please feel free to browse my chartlist. There is practically no bullish charts around, well, with a little exception of bonds, VIX and the US buck.
The dollar long-term chart would be the most depressing though to the crowds of the gold bugs that I was swearing my allegiance for quite while, if get it correctly.

In brief, it looks to me that the dollar is in a very early bull run, that may last till 2016-7. That would fit nicely with the next major through for the gold that's due in December 2016.
Now, once you know all about the future, have a very nice weekend folks.