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Monday, May 30, 2011

Weekend wrap- it's over when it's over.

If you thought a week ago that the back and forth ride should be over, you certainly got disappointed. Just another round-trip week. We may have a better chance of breaking that pattern this coming week, but will see. Simply it's over when it's over. Same goes for this entire bull.
SPX bounced from the gap and trendline support and rode just up to the resistance of the down-sloping channel.
Landmarks for the direction of the next move appear clear: 1312 down and 1330 up.
Russell 2000 actually pierced the trendline resistance intraday on Friday before pulling back. It did manage to close just above 50 DMA which was kind of fulcrum for the swings recently.
Just to repeat my previous thesis, R2K is already likely in the topping process even if it chooses to go up for another month or so.
Poor US dollar did top for this bounce in quite ugly fashion and amongst bearish euro news. Likely to get even poorer soon (bounces included).
That leaves us with oil and other commodities. Keeping in mind that Summer is generally a bad period for this pack, this year it may be relatively nice, considering the dollar development and the fact that the correction (or the bear raid) has already happened.
One more market to cover: Shanghai composite index. I have been keeping few charts of it in my list and just added few updated comments. I still expect it to recover and rally strongly for several months. That's purely based on the look of the charts- simply missing one more leg up. It got however to the point that the rally option is now/soon or never.

In summary, the market resisted quite nicely the distribution that's going on from all the "sell in May and go away" types and should have some progress over the next few weeks. However, if it chooses to continue to correct now, we should get into a very nice patch after the mid-Summer.

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