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Friday, May 6, 2011

Weekend wrap.

Stock market suffered relatively modest selloff and commodities a true panic this week. All with a bounce of the dollar from a very oversold position and a minor support. This appears to me like a nice reset of the recent froth.
SPX remains in an uptrend with good support both from the trendline and support zone that covers 1320-1340.
The bottom spotter gave a fair (could be better) signal on Thursday.
Russell 2000 also still looks good, finding support at the trendline but any further drop could be a problem.
US dollar bounced after several bottoming candlesticks and commodities selloff already underway. It did not even get to the 50 days MA which is currently around 75.5 and that's highest I would expect it to go.

I will spend more time on commodities in this update, since that's where the action was this week.
I have been watching a potential rising wedge in Oil, expecting it to complete in June-July in time for the Summer correction, but last week made it clear that it was not a wedge but a flat, as you can see below.
This correction in oil corresponds to one in Oil Services, where it is more pronounced and clearly a continuation (or rather completion) of the process that started in early March.
My take is that we have seen the correction in energy expected for the Summer months already and the "Summer low" is in.
 I will mention Airlines here, since they trade contra-cyclical to oil and are in a bear market until proven otherwise. My suggestion is: do not get suck in.

Silver did not heed my good wishes and did what silver does well- sold off violently, landing at the support which should hold.
For its own sake silver should consolidate for a while between 48 and 36, and if he listens to me he would have a good chance for new highs later on. Duration of that consolidation is uncertain and could be weeks, months or even years. In the meantime, such consolidation if traded properly should be more profitable that an uncontrolled run.
Natural gas is getting on my nerves, but that's hopefully for the last time.
In summary, we just had an interesting but healthy week- if my take on it  is correct.

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