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Sunday, June 19, 2011

Summer Roll- Seasonal Forecast.

We had some ugly market action for the past several weeks, and it feels like there has been some severe correction or even a bear market around. However, in reality we had just an intermediate correction so far, with the decline in SPX just under 9% from the top to the through so far.
I have 3 charts showing where we may go this Summer.
In general it appears that we just made a bottom of the wave 4 of the wave C. Wave 5 of the C is just starting and may take us to the 1450 range in September. That's my preferred count.
Another count much more bearish, places us in the middle of the wave 1 of the new bear market.
While possible, I do not think this is the case just looking at the sentiment. Simply, to many bears around for wave 1 of the bear.
There is a third scenario, that is somewhat more likely, but still would not outrank the number one.
Anyway, will see. Hindsight is always 100% right.

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