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Saturday, July 2, 2011

Weekend wrap- wave 5 close-up.

Well, we did get some early 4th of July fireworks this year, and that's in the markets. If you look at my prior post, the scenario of wave 1 of the bear is clearly out of the window (as expected), and the failed 5th is highly unlikely now. Simply stating: we are in the wave 5 of the wave C of the cyclical bull as outlined in the last post.
There is plenty of interesting developments, including gold stocks outperforming gold (gold should bottom soon), bonds-mini-crash and euro consolidating in a triangle. But, not to waste anyone's time during this beautiful holiday weekend, I will just take a closer look at the wave 5 of the wave A, just to see what may be in cards for the balance of the summer.
Just to clarify, we are looking at the wave that started in February 2010.
As you can see, it was a very dynamic run, lasting about 2 1/2 months, with only occasional pullbacks to the 13 Days exponential MA, and the "flash crash" came after decisive breakdown of the trendline that was defined by the very first 1 and 4 days of the rally and of the 13DEMA. Now, looking at the current setup, you can see that the beginning of this wave is not so humble again, which lefts me wondering if the rest of the run will have similar features this time as well.
Obviously, that's a major conjecture on my part and anything could happen.
Have a nice holidays!

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