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Saturday, July 9, 2011

Weekend wrap- Welcome to Pamplona.

Well, nothing beats the fun of a nice bull run.
Just do not get yourself in the way.
After this precautionary notice, let's take a look at where the markets stand now.
The very first observation is that there was a palpable spike in bullishness last week, while the markets generally had minimal net gain by the Friday's close. This by itself, even without further looking at the charts makes a good case for correction to happen next week.
The charts tell a similar message. On most of them you could see a push towards resistance practically across the board.
Just few relevant charts below before further dissecting this bull run.
Now, just a follow-up on the 2010 bull run that was a wave 5 of the wave A of this bull, with reminder that we are in wave 5 of the wave C and both wave appear to have similar dynamics, at least looking from the perspective of this (assumed) early-stage of the wave.
I placed a tentative labeling on the current wave below.
As you can see, R2K may be on schedule for about 3% correction next week. Now the caveat:
Anything much more than 3% would bring the possibility of failed 5 as on this count.
And another caveat, and the reason I put the pictures of the Pamplona run at the beginning of this post.
Bull runs can be quite unpredictable, and we can just keep going up.

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